USD/CHF edged higher to 1.1696 but faced resistance at 161.8% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0434 at 1.1673 and turned sideway. Some more consolidations would possibly be seen initially this week but after all, such consolidation is expected to be relatively brief as long as 1.1447 minor support holds. Sustained trading above 1.1673 projection level will target medium term resistance of 1.1963 next, 200% projection at 1.1966. However, break of 1.1447 will indicate that a short term top is formed with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, deeper pull back would be seen towards 1.0922/1244 support zone before staging another rise.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, rise from 0.9916 is treated as resumption of the long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634. Such rise is expected to have a test on 1.1963/2296 resistance zone first and then 100% projection of 0.9634 to 1.2296 from 0.9916 at 1.2578. On the downside, break of 1.0897 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish.
In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from 0.9916 is set to resume the rise from 0.9634 and 55 months EMA should be taken out firmly. Such development will favor the case that long term down trend from 1.8305 has reversed and would favor stronger rise to 1.3283 resistance and above.