USD/CHF edged higher to 1.1729 last week but failed to sustain gain and turned sideway. While Friday's rebound was strong, it's still kept well below 1.1729 and hence, there is no confirmation of rally resumption yet. Initial bias remains neutral this week and more sideway trading cannot be ruled out. But even in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 1.1244 (38.2% retracement of 1.0434 to 1.1729 at 1.1234) to contain downside and bring up trend resumption. On the upside decisive break of 1.1729 will target 1.1963 next, 200% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0434 at 1.1966.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, rise from 0.9916 is treated as resumption of the long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634. Such rise is expected to have a test on 1.1963/2296 resistance zone first and then 100% projection of 0.9634 to 1.2296 from 0.9916 at 1.2578. On the downside, break of 1.0897 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish.
In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from 0.9916 is set to resume the rise from 0.9634 and 55 months EMA should be taken out firmly. Such development will favor the case that long term down trend from 1.8305 has reversed and would favor stronger rise to 1.3283 resistance and above.