USD/CHF's rebound to 0.9300 last week was stronger than expected. But the subsequent sharp fall revived our bearish view that fall from 0.9594 is not finished. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for a test on 0.9089 first. Break will target 0.9065. Also, while we'd not too confident yet, we're still mildly favoring the case that rebound from 0.7065 is finished at 0.9594 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 0.9065 will affirm this case and target 0.8567 support for confirmation. On the upside above 0.9300 will bring another rebound towards 61.8% retracement of 0.9594 to 0.9089 at 0.9401 instead.
In the bigger picture,we're treating rebound from 0.7065 medium term bottom as part of a consolidation pattern only. Below 0.8567 support will indicate such rebound is finished and bring retest of 0.7065 low. Above 0.9594 will bring another rise. But after all, strong resistance is expected at next cluster level at 0.9916 (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948, 61.8% projection of 0.7065 to 0.9315 from 0.8567 at 0.9958) to limit upside and bring reversal. The long term down trend is expected to resume later after consolidation from 0.7065 completes.
In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.