USD/CHF's consolidation from 1.1729 extended further last week with another dip to 1.1397 before recovering. With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, initial bias is neutral this week. Break of 1.1554 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 1.1729 first. Break there will confirm up trend resumption for 1.1963 next, 200% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0434 at 1.1966. On the downside, below 1.1397 will bring another fall. But after all, we'd expect strong support from 1.1244 (38.2% retracement of 1.0434 to 1.1729 at 1.1234) to contain downside and bring up trend resumption finally.
In the bigger picture, as noted before, rise from 0.9916 is treated as resumption of the long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634. Such rise is expected to have a test on 1.1963/2296 resistance zone first and then 100% projection of 0.9634 to 1.2296 from 0.9916 at 1.2578. On the downside, break of 1.0897 resistance turned support is needed to be the first sign of reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish.
In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from 0.9916 is set to resume the rise from 0.9634 and 55 months EMA should be taken out firmly. Such development will favor the case that long term down trend from 1.8305 has reversed and would favor stronger rise to 1.3283 resistance and above.