USD/CHF's fall from 1.1729 dropped sharply to as low as 1.1081 last week. Initial bias remains on the downside and further fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9916 to 1.1729 at 1.1036 next. On the upside, above 1.1248 minor resistance will indicate that a temporary low is formed and bring recovery towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.1339) and above.

In the bigger picture, the strength of the fall from 1.1729 argues that it's correcting the whole medium term rise from 0.9916 rather than rise from 1.0434. Such correction might now extend to 1.0434/0897 support zone before completion. Nevertheless, we'd still expect another medium term rise after the correction concludes and break of 1.1729 will target a test on 1.1963/2296 resistance zone first and then 100% projection of 0.9634 to 1.2296 from 0.9916 at 1.2578.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from 0.9916 is set to resume the rise from 0.9634 and 55 months EMA should be taken out firmly. Such development will favor the case that long term down trend from 1.8305 has reversed and would favor stronger rise to 1.3283 resistance and above. USD/CHF

USD/CHF

USD/CHF

USD/CHF