USD/CHF's fall from 1.1729 extended further to as low as 1.0949 last week. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further decline should be seen to 1.0897 support and then medium term trend line at 1.0745. On the upside, though, break of 1.1136 will argue that a short term bottom is formed, possibly with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, and bring stronger rebound to retest 1.1729 high.

In the bigger picture, current decline from 1.1729 is treated as a correction to medium term rise from 0.9919. Strong support is expected in 1.0434/0897 support zone to conclude the correction and bring up trend resumption for a test on 1.1963/2296 resistance zone first. However, break of 1.0434 support will invalidate our view and target 0.9916 low again.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from 0.9916 is set to resume the rise from 0.9634 and 55 months EMA should be taken out firmly. Such development will favor the case that long term down trend from 1.8305 has reversed and would favor stronger rise to 1.3283 resistance and above.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF

USD/CHF

USD/CHF