USD/CHF rebounded strongly last week as it received support from near term channel. A short term bottom should be in place at 0.8930 and further recovery is in favor initially this week. However, as long as 0.9300 resistance holds, we're still favoring the case that rebound from 0.7065 is finished at 0.9594 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Below 0.9046 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 0.8930 and then 0.8567 key support level. But, break of 0.9300 will indicate completion of the decline from 0.9594 and bring stronger rally to retest this high.
In the bigger picture,we're treating rebound from 0.7065 medium term bottom as part of a consolidation pattern only. Below 0.8567 support will indicate such rebound is finished and bring retest of 0.7065 low. Above 0.9594 will bring another rise. But after all, strong resistance is expected at next cluster level at 0.9916 (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948, 61.8% projection of 0.7065 to 0.9315 from 0.8567 at 0.9958) to limit upside and bring reversal. The long term down trend is expected to resume later after consolidation from 0.7065 completes.
In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.