USD/CHF dropped further to as low as 1.0577 last week but drew support from 61.8% retracement of 0.9916 to 1.1729 at 1.0609 and turned sideway. A temporary low should be in place and initial bias is neutral this week. Some recovery might be seen but another fall will remain in favor as long as 1.1009 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 1.0609 fibonacci level will target 1.0434 support next. Though, break of 1.1009 will indicate that fall from 1.1729 is possibly over and will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, the close below medium term trend line support argues that rise from 0.9916 is finished but 61.8% retracement of 0.9916 to 1.1729 at 1.0609 is still intact. We'll turn neutral first. Sustained trading below 1.0609 will indicate that whole rise from 0.9916 is finished. This will also argue that recent price actions are merely part of the sideway pattern that started at 2007 low of 0.9634. In such case, deeper fall would be seen to outer trend line support (0.9634, 0.9916, now at 1.0009). On the upside, break of 1.1009 resistance will revive the case that fall from 1.1729 is merely a correction and rise from 0.9916 is still set to resume for 1.2296 resistance next.
In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from 0.9916 is set to resume the rise from 0.9634 and 55 months EMA should be taken out firmly. Such development will favor the case that long term down trend from 1.8305 has reversed and would favor stronger rise to 1.3283 resistance and above.