Recent development indicates that fall from 0.9594 has likely completed with three waves down to 0.8930 already. Rebound from 0.8930 has resumed after brief retreat and initial bias is back on the upside this week for 0.9300 resistance first. Break will confirm the bullish case and target a test on 0.9594. Also, the corrective three wave structure of the fall from 0.9594 to 0.8930 in turn argue that whole rally from 0.7065 is still in progress. On the downside below 0.9071 is needed to signal completion of the rebound. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture,we're treating rebound from 0.7065 medium term bottom as part of a consolidation pattern only. Upside momentum of such rebound is clearly diminishing, but there is not sign of reversal yet as USD/CHF is staying well inside the near term rising channel. Rebound from 0.7065 could extend further to above 0.9594. But even in that case, strong resistance should be seen at 0.9916 (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948) to limit upside and bring reversal. Below 0.8930 will target 0.8567 first. Break will confirm completion of rebound form 0.7065 and should target a test on this low.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.

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