USD/CHF's fall from 1.1729 extended further to as low as 1.0479 last week and recovered. With bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, a short term bottom is possibly in place and more consolidations would be seen initially this week, with stronger rise to 1.0695 minor resistance and above. However, note that there is no indication of reversal as long as 1.1009 resistance holds and another fall is still in favor. Below 1.0479 will target 1.0434 support next.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole rise from 0.9916 is finished at 1.1729 already. Fall from there is possibly part of the medium term sideway pattern that started at 2007 low of 0.9634. Further fall could now be seen to outer trend line support (0.9634, 0.9916, now at 1.0009). On the upside, break of 1.1009 resistance will revive the case that fall from 1.1729 is merely a correction and rise from 0.9916 is still set to resume for 1.2296 resistance next.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from 0.9916 is set to resume the rise from 0.9634 and 55 months EMA should be taken out firmly. Such development will favor the case that long term down trend from 1.8305 has reversed and would favor stronger rise to 1.3283 resistance and above.

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