USD/CHF's decline from 0.9334 extended further last week even though downside momentum was a bit unconvincing. Near term outlook remains cautiously bearish as long as 0.9093 minor resistance holds and initial bias remains on the downside this week for 0.8930 low. As noted before, current development argue that rebound from 0.8930 is finished and fall from 0.9594 might be resuming. Break of 0.8930 will confirm this bearish case and target 100% projection of 0.9594 to 0.8930 from 0.9334 at 0.8670. On the upside, though, above 0.9093 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook and turn bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, we're treating rebound from 0.7065 medium term bottom as part of a consolidation pattern only. Current development is starting to argue that such rebound is finished. But we'd prefer to see a break of 0.8930 to confirm. In that case, deeper declines should be seen to 0.8567 support and below at least. On the upside, above 0.9334 will bring another rise to extend the rebound from 0.7065. But strong resistance should be seen at 0.9916 (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948) to limit upside and bring reversal.
In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.