A short term bottom should at least be in place at 1.0330 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Upside momentum in USD/CHF is not apparent yet. But after all, we'll stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.0460 minor support holds. Above 1.0624 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1729 to 1.0330 at 1.0864 next. However, break of 1.0460 will dampen this bullish view and suggest that fall from 1.1729 is possibly still in progress for another low below 1.0330.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is possibly in the process of forming a medium term sideway pattern that started at the long term bottom of 0.9634 (2008 low). The pair will continue to stay in converging range of 0.9634/1.2296 for a while. A break of either 0.9916 support or 1.1729 resistance is needed to indicate that USD/CHF is back into a directional trend. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain neutral.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. But the current outlook is rather unclear. Firstly, USD/CHF is staying in convergence range of 0.9634/1.2296. Secondly USD/CHF lacks sustained buying to send it through 55 months EMA (now at 1.1394) decisively yet. We'd stay neutral first until a break out from the current medium term range.

/

/

/

/