USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | April 22 2012 12:08 PM

USD/CHF's fall and break of 0.901 support last week suggests that rebound from 0.9001 has completed at 0.9251 already. More importantly, the development now suggests that recent price actions from 0.8930 are merely a consolidation pattern and could have finished at 0.9251 already. In other words, fall from 0.9594 is no over and is possibly resuming. Initial bias remains mildly on the downside this week for 0.9001 support first. Break will affirm this bearish case and should send USD/CHF through 0.8903 towards 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9594 at 0.8628. In any case, we'll now stay cautiously bearish as long as 0.9251 holds.

In the bigger picture, we're treating rebound from 0.7065 medium term bottom as part of a consolidation pattern. Current development now mildly favors the case that such correction is already finished at 0.9594, as affirmed by weekly MACD's stay below signal line. Break of 0.8567 support will confirm this bearish case and should at least push USD/CHF lower for 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9594 at 0.8031 and below.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.

USD/CHF