USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | April 29 2012 1:15 PM

USD/CHF continued to spiral lower last week but after all, it's kept in range of 0.9001/0.9251. Recent price actions have been indecisive since making a bottom at 0.8930. Subsequent pattern could be unfolding as a triangle. And, break of 0.9251 or 0.9001 is needed to clear the near term outlook. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral. On the downside, break of 0.9001 support will affirm the bearish case that fall from 0.9594 is resuming and should send USD/CHF through 0.8903 towards 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9594 at 0.8628. However, break of 0.9251 resistance will revive the case that fall from 0.9594 is finished at 0.8930 and will flip bias back to the upside to 0.9594 and above.

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In the bigger picture, we're treating rebound from 0.7065 medium term bottom as part of a consolidation pattern. Current development now mildly favors the case that such correction is already finished at 0.9594, as affirmed by weekly MACD's stay below signal line. Break of 0.8567 support will confirm this bearish case and should at least push USD/CHF lower for 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9594 at 0.8031 and below.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.