USD/CHF continued to engage in sideway trading in the triangle pattern from 0.8930 last week and outlook remains unchanged. Such pattern reflected indecisive underlying sentiments. Breakout from 0.9041/9251 range is needed to clear the near term picture. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral. On the upside, break of 0.9251 resistance will revive the case that fall from 0.9594 is finished at 0.8930 and will flip bias back to the upside to 0.9594 and above. On the downside, break of 0.9041 will indicate that fall from 0.9594 is resuming for another low below 0.8930.
In the bigger picture, we're treating rebound from 0.7065 medium term bottom as part of a consolidation pattern. Recent price actions mixed up the outlook and raised the odds for another high above 0.9594 before such rebound completes. But even in that case, upside should be limited by 0.9916 resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948). Meanwhile, below 0.8930 will revive the case that such rebound is already completed. Further break of 0.8567 will confirm the bearish case and should at least push USD/CHF lower for 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9594 at 0.8031 and below.
In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.