USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | May 13 2012 3:31 PM

USD/CHF rose to as high as 0.9306 last week. The break of 0.9251 resistance suggests that rebound from 0.8930 is resuming. Further rise will be expected as long as 0.9194 support holds, towards 0.9334. Break there will confirm this bullish case and target 0.9594 high next. On the downside, though, below 0.9194 will mix up near term outlook and turn focus back to 0.9041 support instead.

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In the bigger picture, we're treating rebound from 0.7065 medium term bottom as part of a consolidation pattern. Recent price actions mixed up the outlook and raised the odds for another high above 0.9594 before such rebound completes. But even in that case, upside should be limited by 0.9916 resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948). Meanwhile, below 0.8930 will revive the case that such rebound is already completed. Further break of 0.8567 will confirm the bearish case and should at least push USD/CHF lower for 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9594 at 0.8031 and below.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in progress and there is no indication of a reversal yet. Such down trend would extend to 100% projection of 1.8305 to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.6266 after finishing the consolidation from 0.7065.