USD/CHF's rally extended further to as high as 0.9499 last week before making a short term top there and retreated. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for retreat to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9351) and below. But downside is expected to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9041 to 0.9499 at 0.9324 and bring another rally. Above 0.9499 will target 0.9594 high next.

In the bigger picture, current development indicates that rise from 0.7065 medium term bottom is still in progress for another high above 0.9594. However, as such rally is viewed as a correction, we'd expect strong resistance from 0.9916 resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948) to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, break of 0.9251 support will dampen this bullish case and bring deeper decline back to 0.8930 support instead.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in favor to resume for another low below 0.7065. However, decisive break of mentioned 0.9916/48 cluster resistance will in raise the odds the such down trend is already completed and would pave the way back to 1.1288/3283 resistance zone.