USD/CHF rose further to as high as 0.9771 last week before retreating. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, a short term top might be in place. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.9596) and possibly below. But strong support is expected at 0.9499, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 0.9041 to 0.9771 at 0.9492 to contain downside and bring rise resumption. Above 0.9771 will target 0.9916 medium term cluster resistance next.

In the bigger picture, the break of 0.9594 resistance confirmed that medium term rebound from 0.7065 has resumed. Such rebound is viewed as a correction in the larger down trend and thus, we'd expect strong resistance from 0.9916 resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948) to limit upside and bring reversal. Though, sustained trading above there will start to argue that whole down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high) has completed and will bring stronger rally through parity to 61.8% projection of 0.7065 to 0.9594 from 0.8930 at 1.0493.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in favor to resume for another low below 0.7065. However, decisive break of mentioned 0.9916/48 cluster resistance will in raise the odds the such down trend is already completed and would pave the way back to 1.1288/3283 resistance zone.