USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

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Despite rebounding to 0.9678, USD/CHF's subsequent sharp decline indicates that correction form 0.9771 is still in progress. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 0.9420 first. Break will target 100% projection of 0.9771 to 0.9420 from 0.9678 at 0.9327. But strong support should be seen from 61.8% retracement of 0.9041 to 0.9771 at 0.9320 to continue downside and bring rebound. After all, we're still expecting rise from 0.8930 to resume. But break of 0.9678 is needed to indicate completion of consolidation from 0.9771 first.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.7065 is still in progress and is viewed as a correction in the larger down trend. Thus, in case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance from 0.9916 resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948) to limit upside and bring reversal. Though, sustained trading above there will start to argue that whole down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high) has completed and will bring stronger rally through parity to 61.8% projection of 0.7065 to 0.9594 from 0.8930 at 1.0493.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in favor to resume for another low below 0.7065. However, decisive break of mentioned 0.9916/48 cluster resistance will in raise the odds the such down trend is already completed and would pave the way back to 1.1288/3283 resistance zone.

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