USD/CHF's rally extended to as high as 0.9872 last week but lost momentum as it approaches 0.9916 key resistance level. With bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, a short term top could be around the corner, if not formed. Hence, we'll stay neutral even in case of another rise. On the downside, break of 0.9737 minor support will confirm topping and should flip bias back to the downside for 0.9420 support. Though, note that sustained break of 0.9916 will have larger bullish implication and will turn outlook bullish again.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.7065 is viewed as a correction in the larger down trend and could be completing as it approaches 0.9916 resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948). Firm break of 0.9420 should confirm reversal and should at least send USD/CHF through 0.8930 support in medium term. Though, sustain trading above 0.9916/48 will start to argue that whole down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high) has completed and will bring stronger rally through parity to 61.8% projection of 0.7065 to 0.9594 from 0.8930 at 1.0493 instead.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in favor to resume for another low below 0.7065. However, decisive break of mentioned 0.9916/48 cluster resistance will in raise the odds the such down trend is already completed and would pave the way back to 1.1288/3283 resistance zone.

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