Despite edging higher to 0.9971, USD/CHF failed to sustain above 61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948. It formed a short term top with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper fall could now be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 0.8930 to 0.9971 at 0.9573 first. Break will then target 0.9420 key near term support level. On the upside, above 0.9808 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 0.9971 and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.7065 is viewed as a correction in the larger down trend and could have just completed after hitting 0.9916 resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948). Break of 0.9420 should confirm reversal and should at least bring decline to 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9971 at 0.8861. However, note again that sustain trading above 0.9916/48 will start to argue that whole down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high) has completed and will bring stronger rally through parity to 61.8% projection of 0.7065 to 0.9594 from 0.8930 at 1.0493 instead.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in favor to resume for another low below 0.7065. However, decisive break of mentioned 0.9916/48 cluster resistance will in raise the odds the such down trend is already completed and would pave the way back to 1.1288/3283 resistance zone.

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