USD/CHF edged lower to 0.9656 last week but drew support from 55 days EMA and recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some more consolidations. But near term outlook stays bearish as long as 0.9898 minor resistance holds. Fall from 0.9971 short term top is still expected to continue. Below 0.9656 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.8930 to 0.9971 at 0.9573 first. Break will have further bearish implication and should target 0.9420 key near term support level. However, break of 0.9898 will invalidate our view and target 0.9971 and above.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.7065 is viewed as a correction in the larger down trend and could have just completed after hitting 0.9916 resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948). Break of 0.9420 should confirm reversal and should at least bring decline to 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9971 at 0.8861. However, note again that sustain trading above 0.9916/48 will start to argue that whole down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high) has completed and will bring stronger rally through parity to 61.8% projection of 0.7065 to 0.9594 from 0.8930 at 1.0493 instead.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 is still in favor to resume for another low below 0.7065. However, decisive break of mentioned 0.9916/48 cluster resistance will in raise the odds the such down trend is already completed and would pave the way back to 1.1288/3283 resistance zone.

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