USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | September 22 2012 5:30 PM

USD/CHF continued to consolidate above 0.9238 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more sideway trading. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited by 0.9502 support turned resistance, (38.2% retracement of 0.9971 to 0.9238 at 0.9518). As noted before, while some more consolidative trading could be seen above 0.9238, a downside breakout is anticipated eventually. Below 0.9238 should send USD/CHF through 0.9 psychological level to 0.8930 key support next.

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In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.7065 is viewed as a corrective move and should have completed after hitting 0.9916 resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948). Break of 0.9420 confirmed reversal and should at least bring decline to 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9971 at 0.8861. In case of strong rebound, we'd expect upside to be limited below 0.9971 and bring another fall.

In the longer term picture, long term down trend from 2000 high of 1.8305 doesn't look completed yet but whether a new low below 0.7065 would be seen is somewhat irrelevant even to a long term trader. The point to note is that medium term reversal is imminent after hitting 0.9916/48 cluster resistance. The current development would favor at least some more sideway trading between 0.7065/9971 from long term perspective.