USD/CHF's rebound from 1.0032 extended further to as high as 1.0285 before retreating. While such retreat was deep, it's contained well above 1.0032 low and USD/CHF strengthened again to close the week near to the weekly high. There is no change in the view that a short term bottom is at least formed after touching 100% projection of 1.2296 to 1.0366 from 1.0883 at 1.0033 with bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Initial bias will remain on the upside this week and break of 1.0285 will bring rise resumption to 100% projection 1.0032 to 1.0285 from 1.0156 at 1.0409 next. Break of 1.0156 is needed to invalidate this bullish view.

In the bigger picture, whole set of price actions from 1.2296 are treated as correction to the medium term rally from 2008 low of 0.9634. Fall from 1.1963 is the third wave of such correction and has possibly completed it's own five wave sequence already (1.1158, 1.1740, 1.0590, 1.0883, 1.0032). Break of 1.0452 resistance will affirm this case and turn focus to 1.0883 resistance for confirmation. Also, note that break of 1.0883 will be an important signal that whole consolidation from 1.2296 has completed too and stronger medium term rise should then be seen to retest 1.1963/2296 resistance zone next. On the downside, however, below 1.0032 low will indicate that the medium term down trend is still in progress and will pave the way to retest 2008 low of 0.9634.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. USD/CHF failed to take out 55 months EMA and reversed again and thus gives no confirmation of long term reversal yet. We're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further evidence from the markets before making a stance.

USD/CHF

USD/CHF

USD/CHF

USD/CHF