USD/CHF rebounded strongly last week but after all, upside was limited below 1.0200 resistance and hence, fall from 1.0337 might still be in progress. Initial bias is neutral this week and some consolidations might be seen first. Break of 1.0032 low will bring fall resumption to parity first. On the upside, however, break of 1.0200 will indicate that whole decline from 1.0337 has completed and will turn bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.
In the bigger picture, there is no indication of medium term bottoming yet and the fall from 1.1963 might still extend further. Sustained trading below parity will pave the way to retest 2008 low of 0.9634. However, break of 1.0337 resistance will complete a double bottom reversal pattern (1.0032, 1.0034) which will be an important indication that a medium term bottom is formed. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 1.0590 support turned resistance for confirmation.
In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. USD/CHF failed to take out 55 months EMA and reversed again and thus gives no confirmation of long term reversal yet. We're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further evidence from the markets before making a stance.