USD/CHF's choppy rise from 1.0034 continued last week and is still in progress. Initial bias remains on the upside this week as long as 1.0122 minor support holds. Further rally is in favor towards 1.0337 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.0122 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and mix up the short term outlook again.
In the bigger picture, focus remains on whether the medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed at 1.0032 already after hitting 100% projection of 1.2296 to 1.0366 from 1.1963 at 1.0033. Break of 1.0337 resistance will affirm this case by completing a double bottom reversal pattern (1.0032, 1.0034) and will target 1.0590 support turned resistance for confirmation. Also, this will argue that whole consolidation pattern from 1.2296 has completed with three waves down to 1.0032 already and up trend from 0.9634 might be resuming. On the downside, however, break of 1.0032 will indicate that the medium term fall is still in progress and should pave the way to a retest of 2008 low of 0.9634 after taking out parity.
In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. USD/CHF failed to take out 55 months EMA and reversed again and thus gives no confirmation of long term reversal yet. We're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further evidence from the markets before making a stance.