USD/CHF rose further to as high as 1.0367 last week and the break of 1.0337 resistance indicates that the pairs should have bottomed out in medium term at 0.9916. Short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.0234 support holds. Break of 161.8% projection of 0.9916 to 1.0175 from 0.9959 at 1.0378 will further affirm the case as it shows that rise from 0.9916 is impulsive in nature. Further rally should then be seen to 1.0590 support turned resistance next. On the downside, touching of 1.0234 will argue that a short term top is in place and bring retreat, possibly to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.0185). But downside should be contained by 1.0136 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, the break of 1.0337 resistance last week and the sustained trading above 55 days EMA confirms that case that a medium term bottom is in place at 0.9916. In other words, whole fall from 1.1963 should have completed already. Also, the three wave consolidations from 1.2296 should also be finished too. Further rise should be seen to medium term trend line resistance (now at 1.1143) next and sustained there will indicate that whole rise from 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 0.9959 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for 0.9634 low.
In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. USD/CHF failed to take out 55 months EMA and reversed again and thus gives no confirmation of long term reversal yet. We're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further evidence from the markets before making a stance.
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