Forex Technical Update

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USD/JPY 4H Chart 6:55AM EDT 6/21/2012


The USD/JPY broke above 79.77 and into new June highs. This also confirms a breakout above a declining channel that held USD/JPY in a decline since March 2012. The ability to rally from that broken resistance as support after about 50% retracement of the breakout swing suggests at least another leg in this recovery which started at the beginning of June.

If the market fails to clear 80.00 in the 6/21 US session and falls back below 79.50, the bullish breakout is not confirmed. A break below 79.30 would suggest a failed breakout, and a break below 79.00, and the rising trendline seen in the 4H chart would suggests the market opening up the June lows at 77.64.

If we are in an ABC correction, then an A-C wave equality projects this second leg up toward 80.74. Also note the 80.60 resistance pivot seen in the daily chart. Above that the next resistance pivot is near 81.70. For a more aggressive C wave, a 161.8% expansion projects to about 82.05.

USD/JPY Daily Chart 6:51AM EDT 6/21/2012


Fan Yang CMT is the Chief Technical Strategist, trader, educator and a of the main contributors to FXTimes - provider of Forex News, Analysis, Education, Videos, Charts, and other trading resources.

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