Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance
Multiple Time-frame Analysis
- The USD/JPY in the 4H chart shows a push back above the previous support zone of 81.60. It may have cracked it, but market was quick to rebound.
- It is also resolving a bullish divergence with the RSI. The RSI is now threatening to break above 60, and suggest an end to the the bearish momentum in this time-frame.
- We see that the 82.50 level is a coincidence of 38.2% retracement, declining trendline, and SMA200.
- This means 2 things: 1) heavy resistance 2) a break above suggests bullish intention.
- The second scenario is more interesting, because there is no guarantee the 81.60 support will break. In fact, if the current 4H candle closes above the 3/1 high of 82.23, we should be in a good push to break above 82.50.
- The daily chart shows the market respecting the triangle support and finally making a push today to bounce off it.
- Let's see if we respect this triangle pattern, and rally to test the triangle resistance. I suspect that this should be a 5 wave rally, like the one in November, and February (Feb's rally structure more clear in the 4H chart).
- There is an event risk tomorrow form the Non-Farm Payroll. The market might be simply uncertain instead of bullish. We might need to wait until after tomorrow to see if a rally is sustainable. I do have a feeling it will.
Will the NFP help the USD/JPY rally towards triangle resistance? We would love to hear what you think.
Subscribe and become a member to share your views and join live discussions as well as webinars about the markets.