Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance
Multiple Time-frame Analysis
- The USD/JPY has been declining and in the short-term showed bearish momentum breakout last Friday, pushing the RSI below 30 in the 1H chart. Now as long as the RSI remains below 60, the market is bearish. Meaning, a break above 60 in the RSI is an early warning of the bullish continuation.
- The current consolidation to start the week is inching higher and should meet resistance soon near 83.30. If the market remains below 83.55 the previous resistance pivot, there would be a negative reversal, because the RSI would be higher than the previous high, but the price level would not.
- A swing projection from 83.30 (projected channel resistance) points to 82.80.
- We see in the 4H chart that the 82.80 level is where the SMA 200 would be, as well as a rising support. It would also be just below 38.2% retracement level.
- This should be a corrective decline, but the correction could be a long one.
- The resumption of the uptrend is suggested by a break above 83.55, but the market could still be in consolidation, so 84.00 needs to be broken for the next target of 84.50.
- The preferred scenario to be in-line with the theory of continuing uptrend is that the market respects the 83.10 support we mentioned last week, and the RSI respects 40 in the 4H chart. It is testing 40 right now. A break below 83.10 looks at 82.80 as the support or maybe lower, at 82.60, 50% retracement.
- We should watch for a return of a strong bullish candle (at least greater than 1 ATR from hi to lo) to suggest the resumption of the uptrend.
Will the USD/JPY resume the uptrend after current correction? We would love to hear what you think.