(Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.)
1/11/2010 - USD/JPY - After having hit a 4-month high at the top of a medium-term downtrend channel extending from the April 2009 high, price action on USD/JPY (a daily chart of which is shown) has respected that downtrend resistance by tentatively retreating. This medium-term downtrend channel resides within a larger, long-term downtrend channel extending from the June 2007 high. Currently, a key bearish event to watch for would be a significant breakdown below the steep intra-channel uptrend support line (of the smaller channel) that represents the recent bullish price action from the bottom to the top of the smaller channel. A strong breakdown below this steep uptrend line could mean a downside continuation of the medium-term downtrend. In the event that price rises to re-test and breakout above the medium-term downtrend channel, the pair could subsequently reach up to target further resistance around the 96.00 price region and the top border of the larger channel.