USD/JPY Drifts Lower as Risk Aversion Persists

on January 27 2010 6:59 AM

The USD/JPY is drifting lower today as the Dollar strengthens against the Pound and Euro, a sign the trend of risk aversion is still in place. Chinese equities declined again today as investors digest a tighter monetary policy from the central bank. Although the positive U.S. CB Realized Sales number aided the risk trade yesterday, the optimism wasn't lasting and investors are opting to focus on today's U.S. New Home Sales followed by the Fed's monetary policy decision. Furthermore, Obama will deliver his State of the Union tonight and he is expected to address his budget proposals for the coming year. That being said, the Dollar should remain active for the next 24-48 hours, particularly with Durable Goods Orders on the way tomorrow. Thursday's CDO data could have a noticeable impact on the USD/JPY since Japan is reliant upon a recovery in U.S. consumption to help buoy Japanese manufacturers and exporters. Negative CDO data could drag the USD/JPY lower to somewhat uncomfortable levels. That being said, if the USD/JPY's decline persists it will be interesting to see how long the BoJ will sit on the sidelines before taking a more vocal approach towards weakening the Yen. Although the BoJ reiterated its intent to fight deflationary pressures yesterday, the statement wasn't aggressive enough to warrant a pop in the USD/JPY. Japan will release Retail Sales during Thursday's Asia trading session followed by CPI, Household Spending, and Prelim Industrial Production on Friday. Hence, activity could heat up in the USD/JPY as the week wears on. Japan's Trade Balance printed weaker than expected today, meaning Friday's data set could come in mixed.

Technically speaking, the USD/JPY has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with 12/18 and 12/14 lows. As for the topside, the USD/JPY faces multiple downtrend lines along with intraday and 12/18 highs. Furthermore, the psychological 90 level may work against the USD/JPY should conditions deteriorate further.

Present Price: 89.38

Resistances: 89.39, 89.60, 89.71, 89.95, 90.14, 90.39

Supports: 89.21, 89.02, 88.85, 88.62, 88.45, 88.28

Psychological: 90, December highs and lows

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