I think that the recent consolidation between 122.92 and 101.44 was in a bearish triangle. It was broken from the downside and we saw a fall to 100.00. However the forthcoming deep recovery to 102.25 has ruled out the possibility for a direct fall below 95.73. In fact I think that the movement started from 95.73 will turn out to be very complex and it is not finished yet. I will discuss the situation in more details in the weekly analysis. Regarding the current situation I expect another recovery to 102.25 followed by another fall with potential target 98.40 (61.8 % retracement of the movement started from 95.73). With an eye on this idea I am currently long for 102.25 but I have to admit that my confidence is still low. A key support is 100.00. A fall below it will be a sign that a movement for a new low has begun.

Trading strategy: 11:02 EST; 16:02 GMT

Long position from 101.40, stop loss - 101.60, target - 102.25

Confidence level low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.