Daily Outlook 04.01.2008 by Dimo Dimov

The situation here is very interesting. As is shown on the chart, I think that there is a bearish triangle which is already broken from the downside. The interesting here is the position of the said triangle. One of the possibilities is it to be in the position of wave 4 and if this is the case, we are close to temporary bottom. However I think that the alternative scenario is more likely. It suggests further sell-off from here i.e. the triangle could be in the position of wave Y of 2 (running correction). Upon it we should see very soon levels below 100 yen per dollar. A sharp fall below 107.00 will be a confirmation for such a scenario and it will confirm that the terminal impulse from my mid-term analysis is developing (for more information see http://www.karoll.net/en/?section=analytics_currency&id=15 ). A key resistance is 109.00 so I move the stop profit of the short position opened earlier this week to this level.

Trading strategy: 09:53 EST; 14:53 GMT

Short position from 109.95, move the stop profit from 109.80 to 109.00, target - opened

Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.