I think that the recovery started from 95.73 is corrective in nature. My working count for it is presented on the chart and it suggests that a double corrective combination which ends with a triangle is developing. A direct fall below 98.45 (without an initial rise above 100.20) will signal that this scenario is developing. The expected target in such a case should be at least 61.8 % retracement of the movement started from 95.73 but I think that one should expect even new low below 95.73. On the other side a rise above 100.20 would abort the wave count presented on the chart and will signal that a stronger recovery is forthcoming with potential target 102.50.

Trading strategy: 07:17 EST; 11:17 GMT

Short position opened from 99.58, stop loss - 100.25, target - 97.30

Confidence level –changed from low to medium

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.