The yesterdayâ€™s rise above 100.20 aborted the perspectives for immediate sell-off and signals that at least stronger recovery of the dollar is currently under way. One of the possibilities is the rise started from 95.73 to be complex corrective combination which could reach 102.50 before a sell-off for a new low. However I have to admit that there is another scenario. It is presented on the chart and suggests that the last two weeks movement is a bullish triangle. If this assumption is correct, the dollar should be only in the beginning of a very big rise. In fact I can not favor the scenario presented on the chart but it is a real possibility. With an eye on the possibility for a very big up-move I entered long position yesterday but I have to warn that it is still very risky. Only a rise above 101.02 will increase my confidence in the presented count. A key support is 99.63
Trading strategy: 09:02 EST; 13:02 GMT
Long position from 100.25, stop loss - 99.60, change the target from 101.70 to open
Confidence level â€“ changed from medium to low
This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.