USD/JPY, eventual new highs still favored

By IBTimes Staff Reporter | April 01 2009 1:18 PM

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - In $/yen, still view trade from the March 5th high at 99.65 as a large correction (wave 4 in the rally from the Jan low at 87.15, see numbering on daily chart below), and with eventual new highs (within wave 5). Note too the sloppy/messy trade over the last few weeks (characteristic of a correction) and the 3 wave fall from the 99.65, both adding weight to this view. Bought on the March 26th close above the bearish from the 99.65 high (closed at 98.70), but the inability to accelerate higher (at least so far) is starting to raise the risk for more wide ranging before the new highs are seen. To compensate for this rising risk, would use a more aggressive stop on a close below the bullish trendline from mid March (currently at 96.60/70), but with the expectation of rebuying at lower levels if taken out. Support below there is seen at 96.00 (Monday's spike low) and the bullish trendline from Jan (currently at 94.90/00).

Sponsorship Link

Longer term, though another rally above the 99.65 is favored, it would be seen as the final upleg in the rally from the Jan low at 87.15 (wave 5), but also the final upleg in the whole correction from the Dec low at 87.15 (wave C of an irregular correction). Note that this type of correction breaks down to a series of 3 waves up (a-b-c from the Dec low), 3 waves down (a-b-c from the Jan 1t high at 94.60), and then a final 5 wave rally (from the Jan low), see numbering on the daily chart below. Also, the market remains within a large bearish for the last 2 years, with a potential test of the ceiling (currently at 103.00/25) before resuming the longer term downtrend (see ideal scenario in red on weekly chart below). So for now for the longer term, would be starting to look for signs of an important top on another upleg above the 99.65 high. Resistance above there is seen at 101.25/75 (38% retracement from the June 2007 high at 124.15, 62% from the Aug 2008 high at 111.65), and the ceiling of the 2 year bearish channel.