USD/JPY
USD/JPY Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

USD/JPY Forecast Jan. 19, 2012, Fundamental Analysis

Close of the Asian Session

Economic Events:

Jan. 19

08:30                    USD       Core CPI (MoM)                               0.10%                    0.20%

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

08:30                    USD       CPI (MoM)                                          0.20%                    0.00%

08:30                    USD       Initial Jobless Claims                     385.00K                                399.00K

08:30                    USD       Continuing Jobless Claims           3590.00K                              3628.00K                             

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.  If the report comes in under the 385K we can expect to see the USD fall against the Yen, but if the report is at the 399K level or above expect to see the USD rally and trend upwards on solid economic news.

23:30     JPY        All Industries Activity Index (MoM)        -0.70%                 0.80%

The All Industries Activity Index measures the monthly change in overall production by all sectors of the Japanese economy. The index closely follows Japanese gross domestic product (GDP) and overall growth figures.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

Analysis and Recommendation:

Levels of Support and Resistance can be found today at:

S:1: 76.5800 |S2: 76.4185 |S3: 76.2210 |R1: 76.9390 |R2: 77.1365 |R3: 77.2980

USD/JPY was trading at 76.70, down at time of writing.

Earlier, economic reports indicated that Industrial production dropped more-than-expected to a seasonally adjusted -2.7% last month from -2.6% in the preceding month

This pair is continuing to trade in a tight range, the long term view is that the duo will be range bound for sometime. I would rate this a neutral. Go somewhere else to earn trade, if the dollar rallys on economic data, it might push the yen down, but at this time, we expect the reports to come in close to forecast or below. Not enough to move the markets.