Economic Events: (GMT)

No Local Economic Events Scheduled for Friday

00:15     USD       FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member (2008 and 2011) Richard Fisher is to speak. FOMC members are responsible for setting the benchmark interest rate and their speeches are closely watched for indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.

His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend                                                                                                 

 13:30    USD      Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)                              0.2%                      0.2%                     

 13:30    USD      Nonfarm Payrolls                                                         150K                      200K                     

 13:30    USD       Unemployment Rate                                                   8.5%                      8.5%                     

13:30     USD       Private Nonfarm Payrolls                                          170K                      212K

 Employment Reports

Average Hourly Earnings measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, not including the agricultural sector.

Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of total number of paid U.S. workers of any business, excluding general government employees, private household employees, employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals and farm employees.

 15:00    USD       ISM Non-Manufacturing Index                                 53.2                        52.6

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI ) rates the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The data is compiled from a survey of approximately 400 purchasing managers in the non-manufacturing sector. On the index, a level above 50 indicates expansion; below indicates contraction.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.


USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis Feb. 3 , 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: ( close of Asian session )

USD/JPY was trading  at 76.17 down from 76.22. The yen continues to drop to Post World War II lows, as the possibilities for BoJ intervention become more likely.

The greenback dropped against the major currencies in Asian trading after a wave of healthy manufacturing figures popped up in the U.S., Europe and in China, prompting investors to short the greenback and embark in search of better returns in stocks and other currencies. 

Market movers on Thursday are:

The U.S. official unemployment data due on Friday, although on Thursday, markets will pay attention to initial jobless claims as well as preliminary data on nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs to combine these with the ADP reports to verify Friday's release

Also on Thursday, Fed Chairman Bernanke is set to testify on the economic outlook before the House budget committee. Comments are expected on the FOMC interest rate policy of last week.

Economic Data from Europe and the USA on Wednesday:

GBP       Nationwide HPI (MoM)                      -0.2%                    -0.1%                     -0.2%      Unexpected Drop           

CHF        Retail Sales (YoY)                            0.6%                     1.6%                      1.8%       Unexpected Drop           

CHF        SVME PMI                                          47.3                       51.8                        49.1        Unexpected Drop

EUR        French Manufacturing PMI               48.5                       48.5                        48.5                                       

EUR        German Manufacturing PMI           51.0                       50.9                        50.9         Above Forecast              

 EUR       Manufacturing PMI                           48.8                       48.7                        48.7         Above Forecast              

 GBP      Manufacturing PMI                           52.1                       50.1                        49.7        Above Forecast               

 EUR       CPI (YoY)                                            2.7%                     2.7%                        2.7%

USD       ADP Employment Change             170K                      189K                     292K      Unexpected Drop

USD       ISM Manufacturing PMI                   54.1                        54.6                        53.9        Above Forecast

USD       Crude Oil Inventories                      4.2M                      3.2M                      3.6M      Increased Inventory