Economic Events: (GMT)

Feb 26 GMT

21:45     NZD                     Trade Balance  

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.                                              

23:50     JPY                       Retail Sales (YoY)                                                                                                           

Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. 

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis February 27, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

USD/JPY was trading at 80.38, the USD weakened as crude oil and gold prices continued to climb up but began to add strength during the Asian trading session. Positive economic data came from the US on Thursday, while Friday morning the CSPI in Japan reported below forecast.

Japan's central-bank governor offered a reminder Thursday of the risks facing the nation's banks from a concentration of Japanese government-bond holdings.

Japan's banks have continued to pour money into government debt, despite near-record-low yields and the nation's deteriorating fiscal conditions. But any sudden rise in interest rates could expose the banks to trillions of yen in losses, Bank of Japan Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa said in response to a lawmaker's question at a parliamentary committee on the strong yen and deflation.

As the yen finally weakens against the dollar, Japan's exporting manufacturers are sitting on potential operating-profit gains that could be worth billions of dollars 

US unemployment data today showed the week ending February 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 351,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 351,000. The 4-week moving average was 359,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised average of 366,000.

February 23, 2012 (GMT) economic results actual v. forecast

 

TWD

 
 
 

Taiwanese Industrial Production (YoY) 

-16.5%

 

-6.3%

 

-8.1%

 
 

 

HKD

 
 
 

Hong Kong Trade Balance 

-8.9B

 

-25.0B

 

-48.9B

 
 
 

 

EUR

 
 
 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

109.6

 

108.8

 

108.3

 
 
 

 

EUR

 
 
 

German Current Assessment 

117.5

 

116.5

 

116.3

 
 
 

 

EUR

 
 
 

German Business Expectations 

102.3

 

102.0

 

100.9

 
 
 

 

EUR

 
 
 

Italian Consumer Confidence 

94.2

 

90.0

 

91.8

 
 
 

 

GBP

 
 
 

BBA Mortgage Approvals 

38.1K

 

37.3K

 

36.6K

 
 
 

 

GBP

 
 
 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-3

 

-13

 

-16

 
 
 

 

USD

 
 
 

Initial Jobless Claims 

351K

 

354K

 

351K

 
 
 

 

CAD

 
 
 

Corporate Profits (QoQ) 

9.0%

 
 
 

-0.5%

 
 
 

 

USD

 
 
 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3392K

 

3460K

 

3444K

 
 
 

 

USD

 
 
 

Bloomberg Consumer Confidence 

-38.4

 
 
 

-39.8

 
 
 

 

USD

 
 
 

House Price Index (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.4%

 

0.7%

 
 
 

 

USD

 
 
 

Mass Layoffs 

1.43K

 
 
 

1.38K

 
 
 

 

CAD

 
 
 

BoC Review 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

USD

 
 
 

Natural Gas Storage 

-166B

 

-146B

 

-127B

 
 
 

 

USD

 
 
 

Crude Oil Inventories 

1.6M

 

1.0M

 

-0.2M

 
 
 

 

USD

 
 
 

Gasoline Inventories 

-0.6M

 

-0.3M

 

0.4M

 
 
 

 

CAD

 
 
 

BoC Gov Carney Speaks 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

VEF

 
 
 

Venezuelan Industrial Production (YoY) 

4.8%

 

4.7%

 

5.7%

 
 
 

 

VEF

 
 
 

Venezuelan Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.4%

 

13.3%

 

11.0%

 
 
 

 

KRW

 
 
 

South Korean Consumer Confidence 

100

 

97

 

98

 
 
 

 

AUD

 
 
 

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

JPY

 
 
 

CSPI (YoY) 

-0.2%

 

0.1%

 

0.1%

 
 
 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 27-Mar 02 n/a  UK  Mini Tender

Feb 27  10:10  Italy   BOT auction

Feb 27  10:30  Germany  Eur 3.0bn Feb 2013 Bubill

Feb 27  11:00  Belgium  OLO Auction

Feb 27  12:00  Norway  Details bond auction on May 05

Feb 28  01:30  Japan  Auctions 2Y JGBs

Feb 28  10:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Feb 28  10:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Feb 28  15:30  UK  Details gilt auctions on Mar 06 & Mar 07

Feb 29  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Feb 29  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund

Feb 29  15:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on Mar 07

Mar 01  09:30  Spain  Bono auction

Mar 01  09:50  France  OAT auction

Mar 01  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.0% 2022 conventional Gilt

USD/JPY Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
79.2687
79.5593
80.0657
80.3563
80.8627
81.1533
81.6597

Fibonacci
79.5593
79.8638
80.0519
80.3563
80.6608
80.8489
81.1533

Camarilla
80.3528
80.4259
80.4989
80.3563
80.6451
80.7181
80.7912

Woodie's
-
79.6132
80.1735
80.4103
80.9705
81.2073
-

DeMark's
-
-
81.0080
80.4290
80.2110
-
-