Economic Events: (GMT)

Close of the Asian Markets

00:30     AUD       NAB Business Confidence     2

The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index rates the current level of business conditions in Australia. Changes in business sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment. The index is based on data collected from a survey of around 350 companies. A level above zero indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.                           

13:30     USD      Employment Cost Index (QoQ)     0.4%                      0.3%

The Employment Cost Index measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for civilian labor. 

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.                          

 14:45    USD       Chicago PMI     63.0                        62.5                       

 15:00    USD       CB Consumer Confidence     68.2                        64.5

Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. 

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.                          

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis Jan. 31, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

USD/JPY was trading at 76.69

 There is an overall disappointment regarding  still-tight Chinese monetary and fiscal policy as weighing on the Greater China region overall.

The markets were expecting easing in China during the Chinese New Year which did not occur

Asian sentiment were concerns about Europe ahead of a leaders' summit in Brussels later Monday, as questions surrounded Greek finances.

European concerns, a lack of easing measures over the holiday, and comments by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao vowing to tackle irregularities surrounding local-government debt all helped send banks lower in Hong Kong and weakened Asian currencies.

The dollar index on Monday regained a fraction of ground lost the previous week, although some analysts warned of possible risks ahead for the USD.

The dollar index fell 1.7% last week after the FOMC said that it could keep interest rates at low levels until late 2014. The Fed had previously said that rates would stay low until the middle of 2013. The index rose by 0.27% at 79.16

This is a big week for U.S. data releases, and in turn, the U.S. dollar. Heavyweight data including January payrolls, ISM manufacturing confidence and consumer confidence readings are on tap over coming days

Against the Japanese yen  , the dollar bought ¥76.69 yen, holding at the opening.

There are several important Japanese economic reports due out late today. The dollar might pick up some additional strenght as the US markets open, and on possible news from the EU.

Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales

Jan 30  10:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Jan 30  10:10  Norway  Nok 4.0bn 5.0% May 2015 bond

Jan 30  11:00  Belgium  OLO Auction

Jan 30  12:00  Norway  Details bond auction on Feb 06

Jan 31  10:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Jan 31  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Feb 07

Feb 01  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Feb 01  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund

Feb 01  10:30  Portugal  Eur 0.75-1.0bn 3M T-bill

Feb 01  10.30  UK  Auctions 5.0% 2025 conventional Gilt

Feb 01  15:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on Feb 08

Feb 01  16:00  US

Announces details of 3Y Notes on Feb 07, 10Y Notes on Feb

08 & 30Y Bonds on Feb 09

Feb 02  09:50  France  OAT Auction

Feb 02  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.125% 2029

USD/JPY Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
76.4907
76.5683
76.6317
76.7093
76.7727
76.8503
76.9137

Fibonacci
76.5683
76.6222
76.6555
76.7093
76.7632
76.7965
76.8503

Camarilla
76.6562
76.6692
76.6821
76.7093
76.7079
76.7208
76.7338

Woodie's
-
76.5648
76.6245
76.7057
76.7655
76.8468
-

DeMark's
-
-
76.8115
76.7288
76.6705
-
-