Economic Events: (GMT)

00:30     AUD      Building Approvals (MoM)                                         2.1%                      -1.0%

Building Approvals (also known as Building Permits) measures the change in the number of new building approvals issued by the government. Building permits are key indicator of demand in the housing market.                           

 00:30    AUD      Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ)                3.9%                     12.3%

Private New Capital Expenditure measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses. It is a leading indicator of economic health.                

 13:30    USD      Core PCE Price Index (MoM)                                     0.2%                      0.2%

The Core Personal Consumption spending (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item. It measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.                         

 13:30    USD      Personal Spending (MoM)                                         0.4%                      0.0%     

Personal Spending measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all spending by consumers. Consumer spending accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. However, this report tends to have a mild impact, as government data on retail sales is released about two weeks earlier.         

 13:30    USD       Initial Jobless Claims                                                 353K                      351K                     

 13:30    USD      Continuing Jobless Claims                                       3400K                    3392K   

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.       

15:00     USD      ISM Manufacturing Index                                          54.6                        54.1

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rates the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

The data is compiled from a survey of approximately 400 purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

On the index, a level above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.                       

15:00     USD       Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 - January 2014) is to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. The testimony is in two parts; the first is a prepared statement, then the committee conducts a question and answer session. The Q&A portion of the testimony can see heavy market volatility for the duration.

 23:30    JPY        Unemployment Rate                                             4.5%                      4.6%

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. The data tends to have a muted impact relative to employment data from other countries because the Japanese economy is more reliant on the industrial sector than personal spending.

 23:30    JPY        Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)                                         -0.4%                     -0.4%    

The Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers in Tokyo, excluding fresh food.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis March 1, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

USD/JPY opened at 80.46 and is currently trading at the end of the session at 80.45 staying in a tight range.

Investors are awaiting the ECB's offer of cheap cash, seen at around half a trillion euros, to that region's lenders. The ECB's second tranche of lending may stimulate Europe's economy, lifting prospects for global growth and growth-linked assets such as the Yen, improving exports and trade balances which hit historic numbers this month. Investors have been ditching the USD in favor of more risky currencies with positive sentiment in Europe and a drawback in oil prices. The USD has weakened also due to some disappointing data yesterday showing a drop in home prices and a report in orders of durable goods coming under forecast.

Japan and South Korea reported larger-than-forecast industrial production in January amid a strengthening US recovery and signs that Europe's sovereign- debt crisis may be contained. Japanese output rose 2 percent from the previous month

Retail sales exceeded economists' forecasts in January, signaling that a recovery in consumer spending will help the economy return to growth this quarter. Sales raised 1.9 percent from the same month a year ago, after a 2.5 percent increase in December, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said

The economy shrank a yearly rate 2.3 percent in the final three months of last year, RBS Securities Japan Ltd. has forecast an expansion of 1.6 percent this quarter.

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February 28 & 29th, Economic Releases actual v. forecast

Feb. 28

 

EUR

 
 
 

GfK German Consumer Climate 

6.0

 

6.1 

 

5.9 

 
 

 

 

CHF

 
 
 

Employment Level 

4.04M

 

4.03M 

 

4.05M 

 
 

 

 

EUR

 
 
 

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 

4.19%

 
 
 

6.47% 

 
 

 

 

GBP

 
 
 

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

-2

 

-14 

 

-22 

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-3.2%

 

0.0% 

 

2.1% 

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-4.0%

 

-0.8% 

 

3.2% 

 
 

 

 

EUR

 
 
 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.5% 

 

-0.4% 

 
 

 

 

USD

 
 
 

CB Consumer Confidence 

70.8

 

63.0 

 

61.5 

 
 

 

 

CHF

 
 
 

SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 

NZD

 
 
 

Building Consents (MoM) 

8.3%

 

3.4% 

 

2.6% 

 
 

 

 

KRW

 
 
 

South Korean Industrial Production (YoY) 

-2.0%

 

-3.0% 

 

2.9% 

 
 

 

 

JPY

 
 
 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

2.0%

 

1.5% 

 

3.8% 

 
 

Feb. 29

 

AUD

 
 
 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

-7.3%

 
 
 

-4.9% 

 
 

 

 

AUD

 
 
 

Construction Work Done (QoQ) 

-4.6%

 

-0.6% 

 

11.7% 

 
 

 

 

AUD

 
 
 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.1% 

 
 

 

 

INR

 
 
 

Indian GDP (YoY) 

6.1%

 

6.2% 

 

6.9% 

 
 

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 01  09:30  Spain  Bono auction

Mar 01  09:50  France  OAT auction

Mar 01  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.0% 2022 conventional Gilt

USD/JPY Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
80.2233
80.2637
80.3093
80.3497
80.3953
80.4357
80.4813

Fibonacci
80.2637
80.2965
80.3168
80.3497
80.3825
80.4028
80.4357

Camarilla
80.3314
80.3392
80.3471
80.3497
80.3629
80.3708
80.3786

Woodie's
-
80.2650
80.3120
80.3510
80.3980
80.4370
-

DeMark's
-
-
80.4155
80.3598
80.3295
-
-