Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

USD/JPY  is trading close to the open of 82.23, currently sitting at 82.19 after a crazy morning of trading. Investors anticipating the BoJ decision and statements pushed the Yen as high as 82.48 and as low as 81.97 but after a short time the markets leveled close to the open and have stayed within the channel.

Japan, like the rest of the world is awaiting the Fed decision and statements late Tuesday afternoon.

JUST RELEASED

 Overseas economies still have not emerged from a deceleration phase on the whole but some improvement has recently been observed in the U.S. economy and the sluggish European economy has stopped deteriorating, the central bank said. The BoJ kept key rates and also announced it would increase the amount of loans available through its growth supporting facility by 2 trillion yen ($24.35 billion)

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Economic Data March 12-13, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

08:00

 

EUR

 
 

German WPI (MoM) 

1.0%

 

1.1% 

 

1.2% 

 
 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 
 

Italian GDP (QoQ) 

-0.7%

 

-0.7% 

 

-0.7% 

 
 

 

11:30

 

EUR

 
 

German 6-Month Bubill Auction 

0.053%

 
 
 

0.076% 

 
 

 

12:00

 

ALL

 
 

OECD Composite Leading Indicators 

100.9

 

100.6 

 

100.5 

 
 

 

16:30

 

USD

 
 

3-Month Bill Auction 

0.095%

 
 
 

0.080% 

 
 

 

19:00

 

USD

 
 

Federal Budget Balance 

-231.7B

 

-229.3B 

 

-27.4B 

 
 

 

22:45

 

NZD

 
 

FPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 
 
 

0.0% 

 
 

Mar. 13

00:50

 

JPY

 
 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

-1.7%

 

0.4% 

 

1.8% 

 
 

 

01:01

 

GBP

 
 

RICS House Price Balance 

-13%

 

-14% 

 

-16% 

 
 

 

01:30

 

AUD

 
 

Home Loans (MoM) 

-1.2%

 

-0.1% 

 

2.1% 

 
 

 

01:30

 

AUD

 
 

NAB Business Confidence 

1

 
 
 

 
 

Upcoming Economic Events that effect the AUS, NZD and the JPY

00:30     AUD      Westpac Consumer Sentiment                                 4.20%   

The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index measures the change in the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. On the index, a level above 100.0 indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism. The data is compiled from a survey of about 1,200 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions.           

00:50     JPY         BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions                        1.3                          -6.1

The Business Sentiment Index (BSI) Large Manufacturing Conditions Index measures business sentiment in manufacturing. The data is derived from a survey of large Japanese manufacturers. It is a key indicator of the strength of the Japanese economy, which relies heavily on the manufacturing industry. A level above zero indicates improving conditions; a level below indicates worsening conditions. This survey may help to predict the Bank of Japan's Tankan Large Manufacturing Index which is generally released about a week later.                   

 05:30    JPY         Industrial Production (MoM)                                     2.1%                      2.0%       

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.        

06:00     JPY         BoJ Monthly Report       

The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monthly report contains the statistical data that policymakers evaluate when setting interest rates. The report also provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's perspective                                                                                                

13:30     USD       Current Account                                                        -114.0B                                 -110.0B

The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports the data can have a sizable affect on the USD.

13:30     USD      Import Price Index (MoM)                                           0.6%                      0.3%

The Import Price Index measures the change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically.

15:00     USD      Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 - January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar's value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy       

 

Government Bond Auction Schedule     (this week)

Mar 14  10:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Mar 14  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Mar 14  10:30  Swiss  Bond auction

Mar 14  15:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond exchange auction on Mar 21

Mar 14  18:00  US  Auctions 30Y Bonds

Mar 15  09:30  Spain  Obligacion auction

Mar 15  09:50  France  BTAN auction

Mar 15  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.5% 2042 conventional Gilt

Mar 15  10:50  France  OATi auction

Mar 15  16:00  US  Announces auction of 10Y TIPS on Mar 22

USD/JPY Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
81.4477
81.7048
81.9517
82.2088
82.4557
82.7128
82.9597

Fibonacci
81.7048
81.8974
82.0163
82.2088
82.4014
82.5203
82.7128

Camarilla
82.0599
82.1061
82.1523
82.2088
82.2447
82.2909
82.3371

Woodie's
-
81.7023
81.9465
82.2062
82.4505
82.7103
-

DeMark's
-
-
82.3323
82.1471
81.8282
-
-