Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

USD/JPY is trading at 80.77 after hitting a high earlier of 80.94 and then settling as investors were reassured over Greece.

The Yen benefited as a safe haven escape as worries that Greece was still at risk of a pushed investors to move from risky assets. Doubts about the success of the Greek debt-swap deal on Thursday have risen with only 20 per cent of private creditors so far agreeing to the deal. The Greek government has set a 75 per cent participation rate as a threshold for proceeding with the transaction.

There is an immense amount of risk surrounding this scenario if it doesn't go according to plan there will be huge risk aversion taking place - which might push the Yen even higher..

Greece and the IIF seem to have calmed the markets by assuring publicly that everything was on track late in the day as pressure seemed to ease of and the investors moved back out of the yen.

The statements over the weekend by the Chinese Premier, reducing growth estimates for 2012 is having a reverberating effect the entire pacific.

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March 7, 2012 Economic Release actual v. forecast

AUD

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.4%

 

0.7% 

 

0.8%

March 6, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

 

AUD

 
 
 

Current Account 

-8.4B

 

-8.0B 

 

-5.8B 

 
 

 

AUD

 
 
 

Interest Rate Decision 

4.25%

 

4.25% 

 

4.25% 

 
 

 

GBP

 
 
 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.5%

 

0.3% 

 

0.6% 

 
 

 

EUR

 
 
 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.3%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.3% 

 
 

 

CAD

 
 
 

Ivey PMI 

66.5

 

62.1 

 

64.1 

 
 

 

Scheduled Economic Events for March 8, 2012 (GMT)

00:30     AUD       Employment Change                                     5.0K                       46.3K                    

 00:30    AUD       Unemployment Rate                                     5.2%                      5.1%

Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending. The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.                          

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                    350K                      351K                     

13:30     USD       Continuing Jobless Claims                           3385K                    3402K     

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.       

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 08  16:00  US Announces auctions of 3Y Notes

Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar 13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

USD/JPY Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
79.6297
80.1038
80.4407
80.9148
81.2517
81.7258
82.0627

Fibonacci
80.1038
80.4136
80.6050
80.9148
81.2246
81.4160
81.7258

Camarilla
80.5545
80.6288
80.7032
80.9148
80.8518
80.9262
81.0005

Woodie's
-
80.0695
80.3720
80.8805
81.1830
81.6915
-

DeMark's
-
-
81.0833
80.8306
80.2722
-
-