Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

USD/JPY  is trading at 81.29 up from the start at 81.09, the JPY lost strength on negative trade balance reports. Whereas the USD had strong data to rely on. This morning,  Japan's trade deficit widened in January to 1.382 trillion yen ($17.0 billion), up 245.9% compared to the year-ago period the country's Ministry of Finance said Thursday. Japan's current account deficit totaled 437.3 billion yen in the month, larger than the 322.4 billion yen expected by economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires. The trade deficit and current account deficit were the largest on record.

Australia's seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 5.2% in February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday.  The numbers were in line with forecasts.

Australia's fourth-quarter gross domestic product rose 0.4% against economists' expectations of a 0.8% gain, disappointing government officials and the markets.

The New Zealand Reserve Bank has held the official cash rate at its historic low of 2.5 per cent at its review. Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard opted against making a rate change when releasing the quarterly monetary policy statement. He said if the New Zealand dollar remained at its high levels it would lessen the need to raise the rate. Dr Bollard says the New Zealand economy was continuing to improve despite the export sector being impacted by the high dollar.

South Korea kept its key interest rate on hold at 3.25% on Thursday, according to reports. The decision was widely expected.

China will extend yuan-denominated loans to other nations that make up the Bric group of nations, according to a report in the Financial Times on Thursday.

In the US the ADP Payroll report showed a 216,000 increase from a revised 173,000 jobs added in January, and topped the 208,000 new jobs economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had been expecting. Conditions continue to improve at a moderate pace and are consistent with other indicators suggesting some firming of the labor market. This pick-up is consistent with the recent acceleration of the nation's gross domestic product which, in the fourth quarter.

The Fed is considering a new form of sterilized quantitative easing that would allow asset purchases despite high oil prices, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal.

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March 8, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

 

 AUD

Employment Change 

-15.4K

 

5.0K

 

46.2K

 

 

AUD

Unemployment Rate 

5.2%

 

5.2%

 

5.1%

 

 

March 7, 2012 Economic Release actual v. forecast

 

GBP

 
 
 

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) 

1.20%

 
 
 

1.40% 

 
 

 

AUD

 
 
 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.4%

 

0.7% 

 

0.8% 

 
 

 

MYR

 
 
 

Malaysian Trade Balance 

8.75B

 

8.20B 

 

8.31B 

 
 

 

JPY

 
 
 

Leading Index 

94.9

 

95.1 

 

93.8 

 
 

 

CHF

 
 
 

Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.1% 

 

3.1% 

 
 

 

EUR

 
 
 

Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) 

-4.2%

 

-4.0% 

 

-3.5% 

 
 

 

TWD

 
 
 

Taiwanese Trade Balance 

2.83B

 

1.10B 

 

0.42B 

 
 

 

EUR

 
 
 

German 5-Year Bobls Auction 

0.790%

 
 
 

0.910% 

 
 

 

EUR

 
 
 

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

-2.7%

 

0.6% 

 

1.6% 

 
 

 

CLP

 
 
 

Chilean Trade Balance 

 

 

1.00B 

 

1.98B 

 
 

 

USD

 
 
 

MBA Mortgage Applications  

-1.2%

 
 
 

-0.3%

 
 

 

March 9, 2012 Economic Events Schedule

00:30     AUD      Trade Balance                                 1.51B                     1.71B    

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.        

 01:30    CNY       Chinese CPI (YoY)                         3.6%                      4.5%                     

 01:30    CNY      Chinese PPI (YoY)                          0.0%                     0.7%                     

 05:30    CNY       Chinese Fixed Asset Invest          19.6%                    23.8%     

05:30     CNY      Chinese Industrial Pro                   12.4%                   12.8%                   

 05:30    CNY       Chinese Retail Sales (YoY)          17.4%                    18.1%

Beginning this month we will start including China in our economic reports, since their economic data has such a large effect on the global economy. Second only to the USA. The link inserted, will allow you to visit the English section of the Chinese government website where all the details and data are released in English.        

13:30     USD      Average Hourly Earnings             0.2%                      0.2%                     

 13:30    USD       Nonfarm Payrolls                         210K                      243K                     

13:30     USD       Unemployment Rate                     8.3%                      8.3%                     

 13:30    USD       Average Weekly Hours                34.5                       34.5                       

 13:30    USD      Private Nonfarm Payrolls            215K                      257K

The Nonfarm Payroll report consists of several sections each having its own releases and data, which the markets interpret. This are crucial reports, giving investors and economists deep insight to the American Economy and are excellent predictions of what is to come. 

13:30     USD      Trade Balance                              -49.0B                   -48.8B    

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

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Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Mar 12, 10Y Notes on Mar 13 & 30Y Bonds on Mar 14

Mar 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Mar 13

Mar 09  11:00  Belgium  OLO mini bond auction

Mar 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu on Mar 14 

USD/JPY Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
80.0013
80.2967
80.8123
81.1077
81.6233
81.9187
82.4343

Fibonacci
80.2967
80.6065
80.7979
81.1077
81.4175
81.6089
81.9187

Camarilla
81.1050
81.1793
81.2537
81.1077
81.4023
81.4767
81.5510

Woodie's
-
80.3517
80.9225
81.1628
81.7335
81.9737
-

DeMark's
-
-
81.7710
81.1815
80.9600
-
-