USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

on February 05 2010 9:17 AM

Daily Pivots: (S1) 88.02; (P) 89.55; (R1) 90.54

USD/JPY continues to consolidate above 88.57 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Some more sideway trading might be seen but recovery is expected to be limited below 91.26 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 88.57 will target 87.36 support next. As noted before, break of 87.36 will also confirm the bearish case that whole rise from 84.10 has completed with three waves up to 93.74 already and that medium term down trend is resuming for another low below 84.81. However break of 91.26 will invalidate the bearish view and suggest that rise from 84.81 is still in progress for another high above 93.74.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still trading below medium term trend line resistance at 94.18 and 55 weeks EMA at 93.79 Whole down trend from 124.13 is likely still in progress and a break of 84.81 will target 1995 low of 79.75. However, note bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above the medium trend line resistance will be the first signal of medium term reversal and in such case, focus will turn to 101.43 resistance for confirmation.

USD/JPY

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