USD/JPY continued to engage in consolidative trading below 83.67 last week and there is no change in its outlook. Initial bias remains neutral and more consolidations could still be seen. But even in case of deeper retreat, we'd expect downside to be contained by 82.27 support and bring another rise. Above 83.67 will target a test on 84.49 resistance first and break there will confirm that whole rebound from 80.29 has resumed for 100% projection of 80.29 to 84.49 from 80.93 at 85.13. Though, below 82.27 will turn focus back to 80.93 support instead.

In the bigger picture, with 85.92 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 94.97 to 80.29 at 85.89) intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet and the longer term down trend in USD/JPY is possibly still in progress for another test on 79.75 (1995 low). Note that USD/JPY is possibly picking up downside momentum again. Decisive break of 79.75 will target 61.8% projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 84.49 at 75.41 next. On the upside, break of 84.49 resistance, though, will argue that a medium term bottom is likely formed and will turn focus back to 85.92 cluster resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, there is no indication of trend reversal yet and USD/JPY's long term down trend could still extend further to 1995 low of 79.75. We'd anticipate some strong support from 79.75 initially to bring rebound. Focus will be on whether 79.75 would hold or USD/JPY is indeed resuming the multi decade decline that started back in the 80's.

/

/

/

/