USD/JPY's strong rebound from 81.84 last week suggests that choppy retreat from 83.67 is completed already. Though, there was no follow through buying after USD/JPY hit 83.11 a made a temporary top there. Initial bias is neutral this week and some consolidations could be seen. Nevertheless, we'd expect downside to be contained above 81.84 support and bring another rise. Above 83.11 should bring resumption of whole rebound from 80.93 through 83.67 resistance to 94.49. Also, this will re-affirm the case that whole rebound from 80.29 is still in progress for 85.92 cluster resistance. However, On the downside, below 81.84 will turn focus back to 80.93 instead.

In the bigger picture, with 85.92 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 94.97 to 80.29 at 85.89) intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet and the longer term down trend in USD/JPY is possibly still in progress for another test on 79.75 (1995 low). Note that USD/JPY is possibly picking up downside momentum again. Decisive break of 79.75 will target 61.8% projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 84.49 at 75.41 next. On the upside, break of 84.49 resistance, though, will argue that a medium term bottom is likely formed and will turn focus back to 85.92 cluster resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, there is no indication of trend reversal yet and USD/JPY's long term down trend could still extend further to 1995 low of 79.75. We'd anticipate some strong support from 79.75 initially to bring rebound. Focus will be on whether 79.75 would hold or USD/JPY is indeed resuming the multi decade decline that started back in the 80's.

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