Despite edging higher to 83.19, USD/JPY's upside was limited well below 83.67 resistance and the pair weakened sharply towards the end of the week. Initial bias is neutral this week. On the downside, below 81.84 will bring deeper fall to 80.93 support and possibly below. On the upside, above 83.19 will revive the case that rise from 80.93 is still in progress and turn bias back to the upside for 83.67 and then 84.49.

In the bigger picture, with 85.92 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 94.97 to 80.29 at 85.89) intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet and the longer term down trend in USD/JPY is possibly still in progress for another test on 79.75 (1995 low). Note that USD/JPY is possibly picking up downside momentum again. Decisive break of 79.75 will target 61.8% projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 84.49 at 75.41 next. On the upside, break of 84.49 resistance, though, will argue that a medium term bottom is likely formed and will turn focus back to 85.92 cluster resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, there is no indication of trend reversal yet and USD/JPY's long term down trend could still extend further to 1995 low of 79.75. We'd anticipate some strong support from 79.75 initially to bring rebound. Focus will be on whether 79.75 would hold or USD/JPY is indeed resuming the multi decade decline that started back in the 80's.

/

/

/

/