USD/JPY spiked lower to 81.12 last week but was supported above 80.93 support and recovered strongly. The development argues that choppy fall from 83.67 has completed already. Initial bias is cautiously on the upside for 83.19 resistance first. But after all, we'll stay neutral before a breakout from range of 80.93/83.67. On the upside, above 83.67 will indicate that rebound fro 80.29 is resuming for another high above 84.49. On the downside, below 80.93 will target a new low below 80.29 instead.
In the bigger picture, with 85.92 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 94.97 to 80.29 at 85.89) intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet and the longer term down trend in USD/JPY is possibly still in progress for another test on 79.75 (1995 low). Note that USD/JPY is possibly picking up downside momentum again. Decisive break of 79.75 will target 61.8% projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 84.49 at 75.41 next. On the upside, break of 84.49 resistance, though, will argue that a medium term bottom is likely formed and will turn focus back to 85.92 cluster resistance for confirmation.
In the long term picture, there is no indication of trend reversal yet and USD/JPY's long term down trend could still extend further to 1995 low of 79.75. We'd anticipate some strong support from 79.75 initially to bring rebound. Focus will be on whether 79.75 would hold or USD/JPY is indeed resuming the multi decade decline that started back in the 80's.